{"id":256,"date":"2025-09-03T19:49:36","date_gmt":"2025-09-03T22:49:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/seteminutos.org\/seteinvest\/?p=256"},"modified":"2025-09-06T20:04:32","modified_gmt":"2025-09-06T23:04:32","slug":"banco-do-brasil-bbas3-onde-estamos-e-para-onde-vamos-em-meio-a-juros-altos-e-sancoes-geopoliticas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/seteminutos.org\/seteinvest\/2025\/09\/03\/banco-do-brasil-bbas3-onde-estamos-e-para-onde-vamos-em-meio-a-juros-altos-e-sancoes-geopoliticas\/","title":{"rendered":"Banco do Brasil (BBAS3): onde estamos e para onde vamos em meio a juros altos e san\u00e7\u00f5es geopol\u00edticas"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"600\" height=\"339\" src=\"https:\/\/seteminutos.org\/seteinvest\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/banco-brasil-tarifas-usa.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-257\" srcset=\"https:\/\/seteminutos.org\/seteinvest\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/banco-brasil-tarifas-usa.jpg 600w, https:\/\/seteminutos.org\/seteinvest\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/banco-brasil-tarifas-usa-300x170.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p>O <strong>Banco do Brasil (BBAS3)<\/strong> vive um dos momentos mais desafiadores dos \u00faltimos anos. Al\u00e9m do ciclo de <strong>juros elevados no Brasil<\/strong> e da <strong>normaliza\u00e7\u00e3o de inadimpl\u00eancia no agroneg\u00f3cio<\/strong>, o banco foi arrastado para o centro de um imbr\u00f3glio <strong>geopol\u00edtico-jur\u00eddico<\/strong> ap\u00f3s os <strong>Estados Unidos sancionarem o ministro Alexandre de Moraes sob a Lei Global Magnitsky<\/strong> \u2013 fato que abriu um debate sobre <strong>como bancos brasileiros devem (ou n\u00e3o) cumprir san\u00e7\u00f5es estrangeiras<\/strong>. Neste artigo, explicamos o que muda na tese, os riscos e oportunidades para o papel, e tra\u00e7amos cen\u00e1rios com um <strong>faixa de pre\u00e7o-alvo educativa<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><strong>Aviso importante:<\/strong> este conte\u00fado \u00e9 <strong>educacional<\/strong> e <strong>n\u00e3o<\/strong> constitui recomenda\u00e7\u00e3o de investimento.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1) O que aconteceu desde julho e por que isso importa<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>30\/jul\/2025 \u2013 San\u00e7\u00e3o dos EUA:<\/strong> o Departamento do Tesouro incluiu <strong>Alexandre de Moraes<\/strong> na lista de <strong>sancionados (SDN)<\/strong> com base no <strong>E.O. 13818 \/ Global Magnitsky<\/strong>. Na pr\u00e1tica, <strong>pessoas e entidades norte-americanas<\/strong> ficam proibidas de transacionar com o sancionado; ativos sob jurisdi\u00e7\u00e3o dos EUA s\u00e3o congelados. <a href=\"https:\/\/home.treasury.gov\/news\/press-releases\/sb0211?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">U.S. Department of the Treasury<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/ofac.treasury.gov\/recent-actions\/20250730?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">ofac.treasury.gov<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Efeito sist\u00eamico:<\/strong> embora a san\u00e7\u00e3o <strong>n\u00e3o seja setorial<\/strong>, bancos globais tendem a <strong>\u201csupercumprir\u201d<\/strong> regras de OFAC, o que aumenta o risco de <strong>bloqueios preventivos<\/strong> e de <strong>cautela em opera\u00e7\u00f5es em d\u00f3lar\/correspondentes<\/strong>. O tema gerou <strong>queda das a\u00e7\u00f5es de bancos<\/strong> e d\u00favidas operacionais. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/5b31ff72-44a7-40be-9023-ca09e7073cb4?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Financial Times<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Choque de jurisdi\u00e7\u00f5es:<\/strong> no Brasil, decis\u00f5es judiciais afirmaram que <strong>san\u00e7\u00f5es estrangeiras n\u00e3o se aplicam automaticamente<\/strong> sem valida\u00e7\u00e3o local, colocando bancos entre <strong>cumprir a lei dos EUA<\/strong> (para preservar acesso a d\u00f3lar e ao sistema financeiro global) <strong>ou obedecer ordens dom\u00e9sticas<\/strong>. O Tesouro dos EUA <strong>consultou bancos<\/strong> (incluindo o BB) sobre conformidade. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/americas\/us-treasury-queries-brazilian-banks-over-sanctions-source-says-2025-09-03\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Reuters+1<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/news\/reuters.com%2C2025%3Anewsml_L1N3UQ0ZN%3A0-us-treasury-queries-brazilian-banks-over-sanctions-source-says\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">TradingView<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Por que isso pesa no BBAS3?<\/strong> Al\u00e9m de ser <strong>banco estatal<\/strong> com grande exposi\u00e7\u00e3o a pagamentos internacionais, o tema aumenta <strong>risco regulat\u00f3rio\/reputacional<\/strong> e <strong>custo de compliance<\/strong>. Em cen\u00e1rios extremos, <strong>correspondentes<\/strong> em d\u00f3lar podem adotar postura mais conservadora at\u00e9 que a incerteza diminua. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/5b31ff72-44a7-40be-9023-ca09e7073cb4?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Financial Times<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2) Fundamentos mais recentes do Banco do Brasil<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Resultados 2T25:<\/strong> lucro l\u00edquido ajustado <strong>caiu ~60% a\/a para R$ 3,8 bi<\/strong>, afetado por <strong>inadimpl\u00eancia no agroneg\u00f3cio<\/strong> e mudan\u00e7as regulat\u00f3rias; o banco <strong>reduziu o guidance<\/strong> de lucro 2025 para <strong>R$ 21\u201325 bi<\/strong> e <strong>payout<\/strong> para <strong>30%<\/strong> (antes 40\u201345%). <strong>ROE<\/strong> recuou para <strong>~8,4%<\/strong>. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/finance\/banco-do-brasil-quarterly-profit-slides-slashes-yearly-outlook-dividend-2025-08-14\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Reuters+2Reuters+2<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Juros e macro:<\/strong> a <strong>Selic<\/strong> est\u00e1 em <strong>15,00% a.a.<\/strong> desde 30\/jul, com o BC sinalizando <strong>pausa prolongada<\/strong> \u2013 cen\u00e1rio que mant\u00e9m <strong>custo de capta\u00e7\u00e3o alto<\/strong> e pressiona cr\u00e9dito. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bcb.gov.br\/detalhenoticia\/20779\/nota?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Banco Central do Brasil<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/americas\/brazil-pauses-rate-hikes-signals-prolonged-hold-eyeing-us-tariffs-2025-07-30\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Reuters<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Cota\u00e7\u00e3o e consenso:<\/strong> BBAS3 fechou <strong>R$ 21,15<\/strong> (06\/set), <strong>52s: R$ 18,12\u201330,04<\/strong>. Pre\u00e7os-alvo de casas variam: <strong>BTG R$ 23<\/strong>, <strong>XP R$ 32<\/strong> (neutro), e consenso TradingView por volta de <strong>R$ 25\u201326<\/strong> (estimativas podem mudar). <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/companies\/BBAS3.SA?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Reuters<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/content.btgpactual.com\/research\/ativo\/BBAS3?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">BTG Content<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/conteudos.xpi.com.br\/acoes\/bbas3\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">XP Investimentos<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/BMFBOVESPA-BBAS3\/forecast\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">TradingView<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3) O que observar daqui para frente<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Desdobramentos das san\u00e7\u00f5es:<\/strong> qualquer <strong>escalada\/relaxamento<\/strong> por parte do Tesouro dos EUA ou <strong>acordos operacionais<\/strong> que clarifiquem procedimentos para bancos. <a href=\"https:\/\/home.treasury.gov\/news\/press-releases\/sb0211?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">U.S. Department of the Treasury<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/americas\/us-treasury-queries-brazilian-banks-over-sanctions-source-says-2025-09-03\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Reuters<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Qualidade de cr\u00e9dito (agro):<\/strong> sinais de <strong>queda da inadimpl\u00eancia<\/strong> com a nova safra 25\/26 e renegocia\u00e7\u00f5es. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/americas\/banco-do-brasil-facing-record-agribusiness-default-levels-ceo-says-2025-08-15\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Reuters<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Trajet\u00f3ria da Selic:<\/strong> eventual <strong>in\u00edcio de cortes no fim de 2025<\/strong> melhoraria margem e din\u00e2mica de provis\u00f5es no ciclo seguinte. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/americas\/brazils-economy-slows-sharply-second-quarter-still-beats-forecasts-2025-09-02\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Reuters<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Dividendos:<\/strong> com <strong>payout em 30%<\/strong> para 2025, o <strong>dividend yield<\/strong> tende a ficar abaixo da m\u00e9dia de 2023\u201324; mudan\u00e7as de guidance podem reprecificar o papel. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/finance\/banco-do-brasil-quarterly-profit-slides-slashes-yearly-outlook-dividend-2025-08-14\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Reuters<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4) Tese resumida \u2014 pr\u00f3s e contras<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Pontos positivos<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Franquia s\u00f3lida<\/strong> em varejo, agro e governo; base de funding diversificada.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Valuation comprimido<\/strong> ap\u00f3s revis\u00f5es e ru\u00eddo geopol\u00edtico (potencial de \u201cre-rating\u201d com normaliza\u00e7\u00e3o de risco). <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/companies\/BBAS3.SA?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Reuters<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Ciclo futuro de cortes de juros<\/strong> tende a aliviar custo de capital e provis\u00f5es. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/americas\/brazils-economy-slows-sharply-second-quarter-still-beats-forecasts-2025-09-02\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Reuters<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Pontos de aten\u00e7\u00e3o<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>San\u00e7\u00f5es e choque de jurisdi\u00e7\u00f5es<\/strong> elevam <strong>risco operacional e de compliance<\/strong> no curto prazo. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/5b31ff72-44a7-40be-9023-ca09e7073cb4?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Financial Times<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/americas\/us-treasury-queries-brazilian-banks-over-sanctions-source-says-2025-09-03\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Reuters<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Cr\u00e9dito agro<\/strong> ainda pressionando <strong>inadimpl\u00eancia<\/strong> e resultados de curto prazo. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/americas\/banco-do-brasil-facing-record-agribusiness-default-levels-ceo-says-2025-08-15\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Reuters<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Dividendos menores em 2025<\/strong> (payout reduzido) e <strong>ROE<\/strong> abaixo do hist\u00f3rico recente. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/finance\/banco-do-brasil-quarterly-profit-slides-slashes-yearly-outlook-dividend-2025-08-14\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Reuters<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Risco pol\u00edtico\/estatal<\/strong>: decis\u00f5es estrat\u00e9gicas podem refletir prioridades de governo.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">5) Cen\u00e1rios (12 meses) e <strong>faixa educativa de pre\u00e7o-alvo<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><strong>Metodologia simplificada:<\/strong> m\u00faltiplos de <strong>P\/L<\/strong> aplicados a lucro anual <strong>normalizado<\/strong> (n\u00e3o GAAP) e ajuste por risco. <strong>Exemplos did\u00e1ticos, n\u00e3o recomenda\u00e7\u00e3o.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Base (mais prov\u00e1vel)<\/strong><br><strong>Premissas:<\/strong> lucro 2025 no <strong>meio do guidance (R$ 23 bi)<\/strong>; Selic est\u00e1vel at\u00e9 o 4T25 e queda gradual a partir de 1T26; <strong>nenhuma escalada<\/strong> nas san\u00e7\u00f5es; NPL agro melhora no 1S26.<br><strong>M\u00faltiplo:<\/strong> P\/L <strong>~6x<\/strong> (desconto vs. pares, dado risco).<br><strong>Pre\u00e7o-alvo educativo:<\/strong> <strong>R$ 24\u201327<\/strong>. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/finance\/banco-do-brasil-quarterly-profit-slides-slashes-yearly-outlook-dividend-2025-08-14\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Reuters+1<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Otimista (re-rating)<\/strong><br><strong>Premissas:<\/strong> sinaliza\u00e7\u00e3o clara que reduz risco de <strong>correspond\u00eancia em d\u00f3lar<\/strong>, melhora r\u00e1pida do agro, in\u00edcio de cortes de Selic no fim de 2025; lucro 2026 <strong>> R$ 30 bi<\/strong>; ROE volta a <strong>duplo d\u00edgito alto<\/strong>.<br><strong>M\u00faltiplo:<\/strong> P\/L <strong>~7x<\/strong>.<br><strong>Pre\u00e7o-alvo educativo:<\/strong> <strong>R$ 30\u201334<\/strong>. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/americas\/brazils-economy-slows-sharply-second-quarter-still-beats-forecasts-2025-09-02\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Reuters<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Conservador (downside)<\/strong><br><strong>Premissas:<\/strong> prolongamento da incerteza das san\u00e7\u00f5es com <strong>cautela de correspondentes<\/strong>, NPL agro teimoso, atividade fraca; lucro 2025 <strong>pr\u00f3ximo a R$ 21 bi<\/strong>.<br><strong>M\u00faltiplo:<\/strong> P\/L <strong>~5x<\/strong>.<br><strong>Pre\u00e7o-alvo educativo:<\/strong> <strong>R$ 17\u201319<\/strong>. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/finance\/banco-do-brasil-quarterly-profit-slides-slashes-yearly-outlook-dividend-2025-08-14\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Reuters<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><strong>Observa\u00e7\u00e3o:<\/strong> As casas t\u00eam <strong>alvos d\u00edspares<\/strong> (ex.: <strong>BTG R$ 23<\/strong>; <strong>XP R$ 32<\/strong>). Use-os <strong>como refer\u00eancia<\/strong>, n\u00e3o como garantia. <a href=\"https:\/\/content.btgpactual.com\/research\/ativo\/BBAS3?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">BTG Content<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/conteudos.xpi.com.br\/acoes\/bbas3\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">XP Investimentos<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">6) Como investir no Banco do Brasil<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Brasil:<\/strong> a\u00e7\u00f5es <strong>BBAS3<\/strong> na <strong>B3<\/strong> via qualquer corretora local. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/companies\/BBAS3.SA?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Reuters<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Estados Unidos:<\/strong> <strong>ADR BDORY<\/strong> no mercado <strong>OTC<\/strong> (liquidez menor, spread maior). <a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/quote\/BDORY\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Yahoo Finan\u00e7as<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Europa:<\/strong> acesso por <strong>corretoras internacionais<\/strong> com roteamento para Brasil (via B3) ou compra do <strong>ADR<\/strong> em plataformas que ofere\u00e7am OTC.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><strong>Dica pr\u00e1tica:<\/strong> verifique <strong>custos, tributa\u00e7\u00e3o<\/strong> e <strong>liquidez<\/strong> em cada rota antes de decidir.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">7) Checklist do investidor (o que acompanhar semanalmente)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Comunicados de OFAC\/Tesouro e do BACEN<\/strong> sobre <strong>operacionaliza\u00e7\u00e3o<\/strong> de san\u00e7\u00f5es e <strong>pagamentos internacionais<\/strong>. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/americas\/us-treasury-queries-brazilian-banks-over-sanctions-source-says-2025-09-03\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Reuters<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bcb.gov.br\/detalhenoticia\/20779\/nota?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Banco Central do Brasil<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Guidance\/teleconfer\u00eancias<\/strong> do BB sobre <strong>provis\u00f5es do agro<\/strong> e <strong>capitais<\/strong>. <a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/quote\/BBAS3.SA\/earnings\/BBAS3.SA-Q2-2025-earnings_call-316134.html\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Yahoo Finan\u00e7as<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Decis\u00f5es do Copom<\/strong> e sinaliza\u00e7\u00e3o de <strong>cortes de juros<\/strong>. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/americas\/brazil-pauses-rate-hikes-signals-prolonged-hold-eyeing-us-tariffs-2025-07-30\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Reuters<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Relatos da imprensa<\/strong> sobre <strong>correspondentes em d\u00f3lar<\/strong> e fluxos de trade finance. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/5b31ff72-44a7-40be-9023-ca09e7073cb4?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Financial Times<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Conclus\u00e3o<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>O caso de <strong>BBAS3<\/strong> est\u00e1 menos sobre <strong>crescimento<\/strong> no curt\u00edssimo prazo e mais sobre <strong>gest\u00e3o de riscos<\/strong> \u2013 <strong>jur\u00eddico\/regulat\u00f3rio (san\u00e7\u00f5es)<\/strong>, <strong>cr\u00e9dito (agro)<\/strong> e <strong>macro (Selic alta)<\/strong>. A combina\u00e7\u00e3o de <strong>valuation deprimido<\/strong> com <strong>potenciais catalisadores<\/strong> (clareza regulat\u00f3ria e in\u00edcio de queda de juros) cria <strong>assimetria<\/strong>, mas o investidor precisa <strong>tolerar volatilidade<\/strong> e acompanhar <strong>de perto<\/strong> os desdobramentos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Se a incerteza <strong>arrefecer<\/strong> e a <strong>qualidade de cr\u00e9dito<\/strong> melhorar, h\u00e1 espa\u00e7o para <strong>reprecifica\u00e7\u00e3o<\/strong> rumo ao cen\u00e1rio <strong>base<\/strong>. Se, ao contr\u00e1rio, houver <strong>escalada<\/strong> nas tens\u00f5es ou <strong>persist\u00eancia<\/strong> de NPLs, o papel pode <strong>testar a parte baixa<\/strong> do intervalo conservador. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/finance\/banco-do-brasil-quarterly-profit-slides-slashes-yearly-outlook-dividend-2025-08-14\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Reuters+1<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/5b31ff72-44a7-40be-9023-ca09e7073cb4?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Financial Times<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fontes principais (sele\u00e7\u00e3o)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>OFAC\/Tesouro dos EUA:<\/strong> an\u00fancio oficial da san\u00e7\u00e3o (30\/jul\/2025). <a href=\"https:\/\/home.treasury.gov\/news\/press-releases\/sb0211?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">U.S. Department of the Treasury<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/ofac.treasury.gov\/recent-actions\/20250730?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">ofac.treasury.gov<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Reuters \/ FT:<\/strong> impactos no sistema banc\u00e1rio, rea\u00e7\u00e3o de autoridades e mercado. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/americas\/us-treasury-queries-brazilian-banks-over-sanctions-source-says-2025-09-03\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Reuters+2Reuters+2<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/5b31ff72-44a7-40be-9023-ca09e7073cb4?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Financial Times<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Banco Central do Brasil:<\/strong> decis\u00e3o de <strong>Selic em 15%<\/strong> e comunica\u00e7\u00e3o. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bcb.gov.br\/detalhenoticia\/20779\/nota?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Banco Central do Brasil<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Mercado \/ Pre\u00e7os-alvo:<\/strong> dados de <strong>BBAS3<\/strong> e refer\u00eancias de research. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/companies\/BBAS3.SA?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Reuters<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/content.btgpactual.com\/research\/ativo\/BBAS3?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">BTG Content<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/conteudos.xpi.com.br\/acoes\/bbas3\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">XP Investimentos<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/BMFBOVESPA-BBAS3\/forecast\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">TradingView<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><strong>Refor\u00e7o:<\/strong> este artigo n\u00e3o \u00e9 recomenda\u00e7\u00e3o. Avalie objetivos, prazo e toler\u00e2ncia a risco.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>O Banco do Brasil (BBAS3) vive um dos momentos mais desafiadores dos \u00faltimos anos. Al\u00e9m do ciclo de juros elevados no Brasil e da normaliza\u00e7\u00e3o de inadimpl\u00eancia no agroneg\u00f3cio, o banco foi arrastado para o centro de um imbr\u00f3glio geopol\u00edtico-jur\u00eddico ap\u00f3s os Estados Unidos sancionarem o ministro Alexandre de Moraes sob a Lei Global Magnitsky [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":258,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[190,294,290,288,292,293,295,289,291,188],"class_list":["post-256","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-brasil","tag-banco-do-brasil","tag-bbas3","tag-credito-agricola","tag-dividendos-reduzidos","tag-juros-altos","tag-lei-global-magnitsky","tag-perspectivas-do-setor-bancario","tag-risco-regulatorio","tag-sancoes-internacionais","tag-valuation-de-bancos"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/seteminutos.org\/seteinvest\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/256","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/seteminutos.org\/seteinvest\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/seteminutos.org\/seteinvest\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seteminutos.org\/seteinvest\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seteminutos.org\/seteinvest\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=256"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/seteminutos.org\/seteinvest\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/256\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":259,"href":"https:\/\/seteminutos.org\/seteinvest\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/256\/revisions\/259"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seteminutos.org\/seteinvest\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/258"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/seteminutos.org\/seteinvest\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=256"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seteminutos.org\/seteinvest\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=256"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/seteminutos.org\/seteinvest\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=256"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}